The latest round of Trump tariffs is about to land Thursday, and the tech industry is getting ready to feel the impact.

Overnight cost increases may be grabbing headlines, but the real danger lies in the ripple effects of disruption across pricing, procurement, inventory, and fulfillment, which will likely degrade customer experience as well, say industry experts.

“Tariffs and inflation shape how companies operate, but they don’t change what customers need,” said Michele Shepard, chief revenue officer at Emburse. “They need more control, better data, and partners who can help them move fast without losing precision. That’s what we’re focused on delivering.”

Wholesalers and distributors who represent one third of U.S. GDP, face up to $50 billion in tariff exposure. Tech goods are among the top categories affected, with disrupted just-in-time systems leading to longer lead times, inventory gaps, and supply delays.

The far-reaching tariffs are the most aggressive U.S. trade policy in more than a century, averaging a rate of 18.4% by July 2025, said Heather Hershey, research director for worldwide digital commerce at market researcher IDC.

The current U.S.-China tariff truce, set to expire Aug. 12, indicates Trump is “getting very close” to extending the truce, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng conducting negotiations in Stockholm, Hershey said. Without an extension, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could revert to 145% levels.

Broad tariffs on Japanese and Korean exports — particularly memory chips, OLED panels, and batteries — are already hitting U.S. tech firms hard. Micron Technology Inc. and SanDisk Corp. may face sharp cost increases on components produced abroad, while Samsung Electronics is bracing for export duties to the U.S.

Artificial intelligence (AI) chipmakers like NVIDIA Corp. could see GPU prices rise 15% to 20%. Firms reliant on TSMC’s Asian fabs may relocate manufacturing and accelerate domestic investments to offset higher import tariffs. Intel Corp., for instance, faces up to $350 million in extra annual equipment costs because of duties on ASML tools and other imports.

Microsoft Corp., Dell Inc., and HP Inc. are stockpiling Chinese components, shifting their production of Xbox and Surface PCs to alternate regions, and urging suppliers toward diversification.

Apple Inc. is boosting smartphone assembly in India —volume is up 240% in the second fiscal quarter — to minimize tariff exposure. Its projected $900 million tariff risk is likely lowered thanks to manufacturing diversification.

Rising chip import costs may push core AI model training offshore, raising concerns the U.S. could lose its edge in AI development.

Meanwhile, business software firms are investing in AI-driven analytics to forecast tariff impacts, optimize sourcing decisions, and identify resilient suppliers.

Mounting tariffs spotlight a deeper vulnerability across the tech sector: Global supply chains remain overly concentrated. Clean tech, especially batteries, is a prime example.

“China dominates both battery manufacturing and its critical inputs like graphite. Strengthening regional supply networks and shifting to next-gen battery chemistries like silicon that reduce material dependency, is more than just risk management,” said Rick Luebbe, CEO of Group14 Technologies.

“Tariffs are intensifying geopolitical tensions with India, China, Europe, and beyond and it’s accelerating the global split in technology ecosystems,” Ted Krantz, CEO of interos.ai, said in an email. “As nations weaponize trade policy, technology bifurcation along geopolitical fault lines will deepen.”

Mariano Gomide de Faria, co-founder and CEO of commerce platform company VTEX, believes enterprise retailers, manufacturers, and distributors won’t be able to reprice effectively or reroute supply chains if they’re still operating across disconnected commerce systems. Rather, he said, the brands with unified, adaptable digital infrastructure enhanced by AI agents will absorb the impact of tariffs faster and with less disruption.

Tech executives also warn the tariffs may create gridlock in global logistics. Even a partial halt at key nodes can cascade into entire supply chain paralysis.

Michael Alatortsev, who heads product strategy at Monitorea, said it is “nearly impossible to spin up manufacturing in the U.S. and compete on price.”

“The worker culture has eroded. You can’t have a product that now costs 10x because you decided to make it domestically,” said Alatortsev, who previously worked at Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.

“A popular way to leverage mathematical optimization is for ‘what-if’ analysis and scenario planning — for example, if a company suspects tariffs may increase, they can model different scenarios (varying tariff rates by product or country) and immediately see how their decisions should change,” Jerry Yurchisin, senior data science strategist at Gurobi, said in an email.

Jack Fu, co-founder and CEO at Draco Capital Partners, said it is essential that technology and smart tools guide moves, not moods. “Investing platforms and AI tools can scan news, prices and market data easily and quickly, and even flag which industry or asset class are most at risk from a new tariff,” he said. “Think of these new technologies as weather apps for your money.”

“While tariffs may be sparking the conversation, it’s automation, robotics, and AI that is turning reshoring into a smart, scalable reality,” added CreateMe CEO Cam Myers. “With faster, more agile systems, on-demand manufacturing, and lower emissions, we have a once-in-a-generation shot to rebuild American manufacturing in a way that is more sustainable, resilient, and built to last.”