Two new executive orders issued by President Trump are poised to jumpstart quantum computing. The two orders aim to hasten the arrival of quantum computing while at the same time protecting U.S. computer systems from threats that may arise from its development.
One executive order, “Ushering In The Next Frontier of Quantum Innovation,” calls for the development of the first quantum computer powerful enough for scientific research by 2028 that will be located in one of the nation’s national labs. 2028, a presidential election year, is considered an aggressive target date. Developers in the field have been aiming to develop a “fault tolerant” machine by the end of the decade or a little later, although IBM reportedly believes it can pull it off by 2029. Fault tolerant describes a machine that runs smoothly even if some individual parts fail or experience disruption. This is particularly tricky as qubits, the basic unit of information in quantum computing, reportedly have a higher error incidence rate as the number of qubits increases. Qubit computing also is vulnerable to small environmental disturbances. Accuracy is generally measured by how closely a quantum operation matches its intended target. The executive order requires the U.S. Department of Energy to create a national benchmarking center within 180 days to assess quantum computing performance with uniform precision.
Quantum computing uses abstract physics principles to supercharge computers well beyond their current capabilities. One fundamental principle of quantum computing is called “superposition,” which means that a single entity could occupy multiple states or configurations at the same time until it is observed. The famous Schrodinger’s Cat thought experiment, for example, posits the animal inside a sealed box being both dead and alive at the same time until the box is opened. Even more mind-bending is the idea of quantum entanglement that describes a link between two objects no matter how far apart they are. This “spooky action at a distance,” as Albert Einstein described it, would allow quantum computers to operate at much faster speeds than conventional computers.
Proponents anticipate quantum computing to lead to major advances in medicine and chemistry, for example. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright says quantum computing is the third pillar that joins AI and advanced semiconductors as the technologies that shape the future of computing.
While quantum computing is promising, it’s also threatening. Quantum computing potentially could unlock all the world’s digital secrets by unraveling the public-key cryptography that underpins secure internet use. Quantum cybersecurity is the focus of President Trump’s second executive order: “Securing The Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks.” The executive order tasks multiple federal agencies with developing new encryption algorithms and digital signatures that withstand quantum-directed sabotage by 2030 and 2031 respectively. These defenses may include quantum key distribution networks that automatically foil any attempts to hack them.
Analysts say that the first nation to develop fault tolerant machines could potentially gain instantaneous access to an adversary’s secrets while also being able to cripple infrastructure and nuclear weapons systems without firing a shot. The Pentagon is being asked to identify three quantum sensor projects to prioritize for 2028 deployment. China is seen as a major player in the quantum computing development race.
“Q-Day”—the moment when quantum computing systems can crack global encryption—is coming faster than expected, Google researchers have warned, with a threat potentially emerging as early as 2029. The general industry consensus, however, is that Q-Day won’t arrive until sometime in the 2030s. A major fear is that quantum computing would allow an adversary access to decades’ worth of stolen encrypted data.
“The new executive order goes beyond the question of when quantum capabilities will mature, often referred to as Q-Day, and focuses on what is already at risk today,” notes Alison King, vice president of government affairs at Forescout, a cybersecurity company. “Adversaries are now collecting encrypted data, expecting that future quantum capabilities may allow them to decrypt it later.”
With the stakes getting higher, President Trump’s executive orders clearly mark quantum computing as a national priority. The federal government announced in April that it would be taking an equity position in several quantum computing developers. President Trump’s executive orders now sets a fast pace for the development of quantum computing.
