In the very new world of quantum computing, which vendor or standards body gets to officially proclaim that the technology has first reached “quantum advantage”? This is the critical moment when a quantum machine can process a complex query better, faster, and cheaper than traditional high-performance computing systems.

It seems like a simple issue, merely a matter of calculating dollars and compute speeds. But the issue is complicated by two factors. First, quantum is still nascent and largely theoretical, with its advances coded in the deep geek-speak of physics. Experts argue by throwing around terms like entanglement and subatomic levels.

Additionally, vast sums are being spent by a roomful of well-funded vendors, and the team that first gets to claim they’ve accomplished quantum advantage wins first-mover advantage in a tech sector that will likely completely revolutionize computing. So agreement about this key benchmark won’t be simple.

IBM, which clearly has a shot at being the first to attain quantum advantage, has published a white paper to clarify this process—and even announced a time frame for quantum advantage. The paper notes that “Rapid progress in the field has blurred this term across organizations, architectures, and application domains.” Written in partnership with quantum startup Pasqal, the white paper aims to define quantum computing in a manner that is “platform-agnostic and empirically verifiable,” and seeks to identify “the algorithmic families most likely to achieve early advantage.”

That all seems clear, but then the IBM paper, acknowledging the confusion, notes that “there’s more to it than that.”

Indeed there is. The field of quantum leaders vying to own this term includes giants like Google and Microsoft and, to a lesser extent, Amazon. Also vying for supremacy are quantum-focused startups like D-Wave Systems, Rigetti, IonQ, and Q-CTRL.

Most of these players have some form of claim on leadership in quantum advantage. Google announced in 2024 that its Willow quantum chip achieved a benchmark in a mere 5 minutes that would have taken a massive classic supercomputer a full 10 septillion years. The field is so wide open that tiny firms like German-based Kipu Quantum recently claimed a runtime quantum advantage that supported faster algorithm speed than traditional systems for HUBO (higher order unconstrained binary) optimization challenges.

IBM, promoting its solutions even as it defines terms, touts its Starling quantum system—expected to be available to clients by 2029—as enabling execution of 100M gates on 200 qubits. (Google’s Sycamore, with fewer qubits, solved a problem in 200 seconds that would have taken a traditional supercomputer 10,000 years.)

All of these impressive stats bring us back to the core question: how can we get clarity on when quantum advantage will be achieved?

Alas, “quantum advantage won’t be a single moment in time,” according to the IBM white paper. Claims will be made and “the community will respond with attempts to support or falsify the hypothesis. This back-and-forth will continue until we reach a consensus.”

Still, the big moment is coming soon: by the end of 2026, IBM claims. “By the end of next year, we predict that the community will coalesce around an agreement over the first demonstrations of quantum advantages. From that point forward, we will continue searching for new algorithms that extract further value from quantum computers.”